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Tony Smith

Mid Michigan Nov. 1st weather analysis

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I hunted for the first time last evening ahead of the front that is now on top of mid Michigan.  Calm NW winds and a double digit temp drop (day time high) created optimal conditions but I picked a spot that only yielded one sighting, a 2 1/2 yo 7 point.

Looking forward, and planning sits with the limited time I have available away from work, I am analyzing the forecast and I'm excited to see that Friday 11/1 is lining up to be EXCETIONAL!

Make no mistake, it's Nov 1st and any time in a tree this time of year is a must however, if you have limits on the amount of time you can take away from your work, Friday would be a great day to consider.

On the attached forecast I highlighted 4 things that stand out to me.

1) Circled in blue are the morning temps from Thursday at dawn vs Friday at dawn.  The difference is a double digit drop on the backside of the weather disturbance (48 hr rain event). Also circled in blue is the barometer which is up and rising.  Though less important IMO, it is a factor worth pointing out.

2) Circled in red is the 48 hr rain event that we're currently experiencing.  IF you have the gumption to sit in the rain, or in a blind, there's certainly great opportunities right now just due to the time of year.

3) Circled in black is the wind speed but, more importantly the wind change of direction.  There's value in hunting wind speeds in the low teens  but the fact that at dawn on Friday they will have settled to single digits (~5-6mph) is a value adder.  More importantly, IMO, is the change of wind direction.  There will be a nearly 180 degree directional change in the 24 hour period.

4) if bucks are still prone to laying down scrapes, they will be freshening them on the heels of the rain.

Friday is THE DAY to sit your best WSW wind stand(s).

Saturday morning will usher in more cloud cover ahead of more precipitation and should be exceptional as well.

Wednesday Nov. 6th is one of my favorite days of the year to hunt this area and the extended forecast is looking stellar.  I have a sore throat that might require calling in to work sick. ;)

2) 1459733632_Weather103019.PNG.ca0a119b8ec726a0bc8c7af8e795a107.PNG

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